SSV ULM 1846 0–0 FC Ingolstadt 04: Result & Stats

SSV ULM 1846

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Ingolstadt 04

2/24/2024

League #80 · Round 27CENTUS ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SSV ULM 184636%

×Draw26%

FC Ingolstadt 0438%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV ULM 1846Expected goals in this matchFC Ingolstadt 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.39

SSV ULM 1846

1.34

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.25

creates per match

1.28

1.50

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

SSV ULM 1846

1.25

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.28

allows per match

SSV ULM 1846

1.50

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV ULM 1846 ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SSV ULM 1846 or draw

62%

SSV ULM 1846 or FC Ingolstadt 04

74%

Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

64%

Winning margin

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

16%

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

74%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

39%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

15%

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

75%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

40%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

48%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV ULM 1846 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV ULM 1846 attack 1.25 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.28 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

36%

level

26%

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

38%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

C. Ortag

SSV ULM 1846 · G

8.2

Match Events

16'

30'

34'

39'

40'

46'

49'

68'

S. Grønning← M. Dittgen

68'

F. Keidel← Y. Deichmann

75'

N. Jann← Léo Scienza

76'

Felix Higl

85'

A. Llugiqi← B. Kanurić

87'

T. Kastanaras← F. Higl

87'

L. Röser← D. Chessa

90+4'

L. Stoll← B. Allgeier

90'

O. Drakulic← J. Mause

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVFC

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots19

1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.88

1Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots19

3On Target5

2Off Target11

2Blocked3

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box12

Passing

56%Possession44%

384Total Passes290

298Accurate Passes215

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3