Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SSV Ulm 1846 vs Erzgebirge Aue — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SSV Ulm 1846
SSV Ulm 1846
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
S. Telalovic 30'
M. Krattenmacher 11'
O. Sijaric 75'
S. Seitz 4'
1/7/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Calista Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SSV Ulm 184638%
×Draw22%
Erzgebirge Aue40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Ulm 1846
1.78
Erzgebirge Aue
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846
1.89
Erzgebirge Aue
1.67

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846
2.00
Erzgebirge Aue
1.67

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par
Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

Erzgebirge Aue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw
60%
SSV Ulm 1846 or Erzgebirge Aue
78%
Draw or Erzgebirge Aue
62%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+
20%
Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals
83%
SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals
53%
SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals
26%
Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals
84%
Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals
54%
Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)
49%
Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Erzgebirge Aue away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.89 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Erzgebirge Aue attack 1.67 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more
38%
level
22%
Erzgebirge Aue scores more
40%

Erzgebirge Aue at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Erzgebirge Aue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
S. Seitz
11'
M. Krattenmacher
30'
S. Telalovic
75'
O. Sijaric
SSV
Erzgebirge
Moritz Glasbrenner
Manager: Moritz Glasbrenner
Jens Härtel
Manager: Jens Härtel

Friendlies Clubs: SSV Ulm 1846 2–2 Erzgebirge Aue

SSV Ulm 1846 and Erzgebirge Aue drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 7, 2025.

Goals: S. Seitz (4'), M. Krattenmacher (11'), S. Telalovic (30'), O. Sijaric (75').

The match was played at Calista Football Center.