Erzgebirge Aue 0–3 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

Erzgebirge Aue

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

SSV Ulm 1846

E. Loder 90'

M. Pepic 53'

M. Seegert 48'

1/24/2026

League #80 · Round 21Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Erzgebirge Aue45%

×Draw24%

SSV Ulm 184631%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzgebirge AueExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.35

Erzgebirge Aue

1.68

SSV Ulm 1846

1.35

Erzgebirge Aue creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.36

creates per match

1.43

1.27

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Erzgebirge Aue

1.36

SSV Ulm 1846

1.43

allows per match

Erzgebirge Aue

1.27

SSV Ulm 1846

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge Aue ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Erzgebirge Aue or draw

69%

Erzgebirge Aue or SSV Ulm 1846

76%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

55%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+

24%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals

81%

Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals

50%

Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals

24%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

74%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

39%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)

59%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge Aue at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge Aue attack 1.36 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.43 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Erzgebirge Aue scores more

45%

level

24%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

31%

Erzgebirge Aue at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erzgebirge Aue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Chessa

SSV Ulm 1846 · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

B. Tashchy← J. Gunther-Schmidt

17'

23'

37'

41'

48'

53'

64'

67'

A. Barylla← P. Fallmann

67'

M. Stefaniak← J. Ehlers

77'

N. Vukancic← M. Seegert

77'

E. Loder← A. El-Zein

77'

A. Becker← L. Roser

80'

E. Weinhauer←

80'

R. Bornschein← M. Bar

87'

B. Westermeier← M. Pepic

88'

Erik Weinhauer

90+2'

E. Aksakal← D. Chessa

90'

E. Loder↳ D. Chessa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzgebirgeSSV

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots17

0.99Expected Goals (xG)2.01

4Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots17

2On Target4

3Off Target6

5Blocked7

4Inside Box12

6Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

461Total Passes373

371Accurate Passes290

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1