Erzgebirge AUE 1–2 SSV ULM 1846: Result & Stats

Erzgebirge AUE

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

SSV ULM 1846

M. Bär 1'

P. Maier 64'

Léo Scienza 48'

10/22/2023

League #80 · Round 12Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Erzgebirge AUE45%

×Draw24%

SSV ULM 184631%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzgebirge AUEExpected goals in this matchSSV ULM 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.35

Erzgebirge AUE

1.68

SSV ULM 1846

1.35

Erzgebirge AUE creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.36

creates per match

1.43

1.27

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Erzgebirge AUE

1.36

SSV ULM 1846

1.43

allows per match

Erzgebirge AUE

1.27

SSV ULM 1846

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzgebirge AUE+0.00on par

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge AUE ↓

SSV ULM 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Erzgebirge AUE or draw

69%

Erzgebirge AUE or SSV ULM 1846

76%

Draw or SSV ULM 1846

55%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge AUE wins by 2+

24%

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Erzgebirge AUE 1+ goals

81%

Erzgebirge AUE 2+ goals

50%

Erzgebirge AUE 3+ goals

24%

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

74%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

39%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge AUE (draw refunded)

59%

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge AUE at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

SSV ULM 1846 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge AUE attack 1.36 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

SSV ULM 1846 attack 1.43 + Erzgebirge AUE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Erzgebirge AUE scores more

45%

level

24%

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

31%

Erzgebirge AUE at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erzgebirge AUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Bär↳ S. Seitz

43'

Philipp Maier

45+1'

Leo Scienza

48'

Léo Scienza↳ B. Allgeier

61'

D. Chessa← N. Jann

64'

P. Maier↳ D. Chessa

65'

S. Meuer← S. Seitz

65'

L. Rosenlöcher← K. Jakob

66'

Erik Majetschak

77'

J. Schwirten← B. Tashchy

77'

O. Sijarić← M. Bär

77'

L. Röser← Léo Scienza

77'

A. Ludwig← P. Maier

83'

M. Thiel← M. Schikora

86'

Marvin Stefaniak

90+5'

Niko Vukančić

90+5'

Dennis Chessa

90+1'

T. Gaal← L. Yarbrough

90+1'

L. Ahrend← M. Brandt

Shots

Statistics

ErzgebirgeSSV

Overview

2Total Shots7

1Corners4

9Fouls7

Shots

2Total Shots7

1On Target4

1Off Target3

Discipline

9Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0