SSV ULM 1846 vs Erzgebirge AUE — DFB Pokal 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
SSV ULM 184637%
Erzgebirge AUE38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 8 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SSV ULM 1846 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SSV ULM 1846 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches
Erzgebirge AUE away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SSV ULM 1846 attack 0.75 + Erzgebirge AUE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38
Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.67 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Erzgebirge AUE at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Erzgebirge AUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Erzgebirge AUE substitutes
Head to Head
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
SSV ULM 1846 host Erzgebirge AUE on Saturday, 12 September 2020 at 16:30. The match is part of the DFB Pokal 2018/2019 season.
DFB Pokal: SSV ULM 1846 2–0 Erzgebirge AUE
SSV ULM 1846 beat Erzgebirge AUE 2-0 in DFB Pokal on September 12, 2020.
Goals: T. Rühle (37'), F. Higl (89').
Erzgebirge AUE controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 12.
The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.