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SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Unterhaching — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SSV Jahn Regensburg
SSV Jahn Regensburg
FT
5 – 1
SpVgg Unterhaching
SpVgg Unterhaching
9/5/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg67%
×Draw18%
SpVgg Unterhaching14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Jahn Regensburg
2.33
SpVgg Unterhaching
0.97

SSV Jahn Regensburg creates 140% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg
2.67
SpVgg Unterhaching
1.17

allows per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg
0.78
SpVgg Unterhaching
2.00

finishing

SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par
SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Jahn Regensburg ↓

SpVgg Unterhaching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SSV Jahn Regensburg or draw
86%
SSV Jahn Regensburg or SpVgg Unterhaching
82%
Draw or SpVgg Unterhaching
33%

Winning margin

SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+
44%
SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals
90%
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals
67%
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals
41%
SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals
62%
SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals
25%
SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)
83%
SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

SpVgg Unterhaching away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 2.67 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 1.17 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more
67%
level
18%
SpVgg Unterhaching scores more
14%

SSV Jahn Regensburg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "SSV Jahn Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SSV Jahn Regensburg 5–1 SpVgg Unterhaching

SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SpVgg Unterhaching 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on September 5, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark am Kaulbachweg in Regensburg.