SpVgg Unterhaching 1–2 Jahn Regensburg

SpVgg Unterhaching

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Jahn Regensburg

12/19/2023

League #80 · Round 20Uhlsport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SpVgg Unterhaching47%

×Draw25%

Jahn Regensburg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg UnterhachingExpected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.19

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.59

Jahn Regensburg

1.19

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

1.14

1.25

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.75

Jahn Regensburg

1.14

allows per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.25

Jahn Regensburg

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Unterhaching ↓

Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

SpVgg Unterhaching or draw

71%

SpVgg Unterhaching or Jahn Regensburg

75%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg

53%

Winning margin

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+

24%

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals

80%

SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals

47%

SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals

21%

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

70%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

33%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)

62%

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Unterhaching at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 1.75 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.14 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more

47%

level

25%

Jahn Regensburg scores more

29%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff