Jahn Regensburg 1–1 SpVgg Unterhaching

Jahn Regensburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SpVgg Unterhaching

8/5/2023

League #80 · Round 1Jahnstadion Regensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jahn Regensburg33%

×Draw30%

SpVgg Unterhaching38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn RegensburgExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Unterhaching

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.12

Jahn Regensburg

1.02

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.12

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

0.71

creates per match

0.67

1.57

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg

0.71

SpVgg Unterhaching

0.67

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg

1.57

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg ↓

SpVgg Unterhaching →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg or draw

62%

Jahn Regensburg or SpVgg Unterhaching

70%

Draw or SpVgg Unterhaching

67%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

12%

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

64%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

27%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

8%

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals

67%

SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals

31%

SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

46%

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

SpVgg Unterhaching away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg attack 0.71 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 0.67 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jahn Regensburg scores more

33%

level

30%

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more

38%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff