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SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — League #80 2026

SSV Jahn Regensburg
SSV Jahn Regensburg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
M. Costly 90'
J. Kugel 23'
J. Scholz 20'
1/16/2026League #80League #80 · Round 20Jahnstadion Regensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg35%
×Draw27%
FC Ingolstadt 0438%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Jahn Regensburg
1.22
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg
1.00
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.28

allows per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg
1.29
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.44

finishing

SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Jahn Regensburg ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SSV Jahn Regensburg or draw
62%
SSV Jahn Regensburg or FC Ingolstadt 04
73%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
65%

Winning margin

SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+
15%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals
70%
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals
34%
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals
12%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
72%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
37%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)
48%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.00 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.28 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more
35%
level
27%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
38%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
J. Scholz↳ D. Kaygin
23'
J. Kugel
32'
Nick Seidel
43'
Felix Strauss
46'
L. Matzler← N. Seidel
55'
Benedikt Bauer
58'
L. Hermes← J. X. Posselt
71'
F. Dietz← L. Wurm
72'
G. Christensen← D. Kaygin
80'
Max Besuschkow
84'
P. Beckhoff← N. Eichinger
84'
N. Oliveira← B. Bauer
85'
L. Frode← M. Besuschkow
90+4'
Gustav Christensen
90+2'
Lukas Fröde
90+1'
Y. Sturm← M. Costly
90'
M. Costly↳ G. Christensen

Statistics

SSVFC
Discipline
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

League #80: SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-0 in League #80 on January 16, 2026.

Goals: J. Scholz (20'), J. Kugel (23'), M. Costly (90').

The match was played at Jahnstadion Regensburg in Regensburg.