FC Ingolstadt 04 2–4 Jahn Regensburg

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Jahn Regensburg

J. Mause 51'

Y. Deichmann 21'

A. Geipl 90+4'

E. Huth 78' (pen), 70'

N. Ganaus 40'

10/8/2023

League #80 · Round 10Audi-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0450%

×Draw23%

Jahn Regensburg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.25

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.80

Jahn Regensburg

1.25

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

2.11

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

2.11

Jahn Regensburg

1.17

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.32

Jahn Regensburg

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

73%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or Jahn Regensburg

77%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg

50%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

28%

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

83%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

54%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

27%

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

71%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

36%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

65%

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 2.11 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.17 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

50%

level

23%

Jahn Regensburg scores more

27%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Tobias Schröck

21'

Y. Deichmann↳ J. Mause

39'

O. Schönfelder← A. Diawusie

40'

N. Ganaus↳ K. Faber

46'

E. Hottmann← N. Ganaus

49'

Moritz Seiffert

51'

J. Mause↳ P. Testroet

62'

L. Guwara← L. Fröde

64'

E. Huth← T. Eisenhuth

70'

E. Huth↳ D. Kother

72'

J. Kügel← P. Testroet

72'

F. Keidel← B. Kanurić

78'

E. HuthPenalty

81'

85'

87'

88'

90'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCJahn

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots19

7Corners7

7Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots19

7On Target8

3Off Target9

2Blocked2

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Jahn Regensburg

Jahn Regensburg beat FC Ingolstadt 04 4-2 in League #80 on October 8, 2023.

Goals: Y. Deichmann (21'), N. Ganaus (40'), J. Mause (51'), E. Huth (70', 78' pen), A. Geipl (90+4').

Jahn Regensburg controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Audi-Sportpark in Ingolstadt.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Jahn Regensburg — League #80 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Jahn Regensburg