FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SSV Jahn Regensburg

M. Besuschkow 35'

N. Eichinger 90'

8/2/2025

League #80 · Round 1Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0450%

×Draw23%

SSV Jahn Regensburg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchSSV Jahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.25

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.80

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.25

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

2.11

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

2.11

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.17

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.32

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

SSV Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

73%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or SSV Jahn Regensburg

77%

Draw or SSV Jahn Regensburg

50%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

28%

SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

83%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

54%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

27%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

71%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

36%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

65%

SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 2.11 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.17 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

50%

level

23%

SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more

27%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Costly

FC Ingolstadt 04 · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

25'

33'

35'

46'

Y. Deichmann← M. Hoppe

48'

Berkay Ozturk

61'

D. Galjen← D. Forkel

68'

F. Carlsen← Y. Sturm

68'

M. Borchers← F. Christensen

70'

N. Eichinger← P. Beckhoff

70'

R. Ziegele← S. Stolze

84'

P. Muller← A. Geipl

84'

F. Ziegler← N. Seidel

87'

G. Christensen← M. Costly

90+6'

J. Kugel← M. Besuschkow

90'

N. Eichinger↳ R. Ziegele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSSV

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots17

2.71Expected Goals (xG)0.76

5Corners6

17Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots17

3On Target5

6Off Target7

5Blocked5

11Inside Box8

4Outside Box9

Passing

49%Possession51%

369Total Passes362

293Accurate Passes268

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1