SS Reyes 2–1 Internacional de Madrid

SS Reyes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Jaime Paredes 47'

Marcelo Ribeiro 24'

Víctor Villacañas 90+4'

11/1/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SS Reyes42%

×Draw29%

Internacional de Madrid29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS ReyesExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.96

SS Reyes

1.21

Internacional de Madrid

0.96

SS Reyes creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

1.08

0.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

SS Reyes

1.42

Internacional de Madrid

1.08

allows per match

SS Reyes

0.83

Internacional de Madrid

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw

71%

SS Reyes or Internacional de Madrid

71%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

58%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+

18%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals

70%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

34%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

12%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

62%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

25%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

59%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 1.42 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.08 + SS Reyes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SS Reyes scores more

42%

level

29%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

29%

SS Reyes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Marcelo Ribeiro

47'

Jaime Paredes

53'

Barril← Manu Miquel

56'

A. Rashiti← Ale Cortijo

56'

Sergio Arribas← David Rabadán

59'

J. Paredes

59'

J. Paredes

64'

Arturo← Marcelo Ribeiro

64'

F. Ofoli← Mario González

81'

Reguera← Adrián Mance

82'

Víctor Villacañas← Arthur

83'

Julio Cidoncha← Carlos Portero

90+4'

Víctor Villacañas

SS

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ribeiro

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

53'▲Barril←▼Manu Miquel

64'▲Arturo←▼Marcelo Ribeiro

64'▲F. Ofoli←▼Mario González

83'▲Julio Cidoncha←▼Carlos Portero

SS Reyes substitutes

BarrilArturoOfoliCidonchaMartínezSaManojlovićFernándezTomás

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

56'▲A. Rashiti←▼Ale Cortijo

56'▲Sergio Arribas←▼David Rabadán

81'▲Reguera←▼Adrián Mance

82'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼Arthur

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

RashitiArribasRegueraVillacañasFrancoGarranchoMarcosNandiLechuga

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Internacional de Madrid

SS Reyes beat Internacional de Madrid 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 1, 2020.

Goals: Marcelo Ribeiro (24'), Jaime Paredes (47'), Víctor Villacañas (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.

SS Reyes vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Internacional de Madrid