Internacional de Madrid 0–0 SS Reyes

Internacional de Madrid

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SS Reyes

1/31/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid41%

×Draw30%

SS Reyes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.88

Internacional de Madrid

1.13

SS Reyes

0.88

Internacional de Madrid creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

0.92

0.83

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

SS Reyes

0.92

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

SS Reyes

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

SS Reyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

72%

Internacional de Madrid or SS Reyes

70%

Draw or SS Reyes

59%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

17%

SS Reyes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

68%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

31%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

11%

SS Reyes 1+ goals

59%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

22%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

59%

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + SS Reyes defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

41%

level

30%

SS Reyes scores more

28%

Internacional de Madrid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Ale Cortijo← Nandi

66'

Dani Pichín← Julio Cidoncha

66'

Manu Miquel← Marcelo Ribeiro

78'

Sergio Arribas← Gonzalo Poley

78'

Gavilán← Carlos Portero

87'

Víctor Villacañas← Adrián Mance

Internacional

SS

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

51'▲Ale Cortijo←▼Nandi

78'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Gonzalo Poley

87'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

CortijoArribasVillacañasMesaFrancoJiménezMarcosRegueraValero

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

66'▲Dani Pichín←▼Julio Cidoncha

66'▲Manu Miquel←▼Marcelo Ribeiro

78'▲Gavilán←▼Carlos Portero

SS Reyes substitutes

PichínMiquelGavilánBarrilFomeyemManojlovićParedesGonzálezJime

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs SS Reyes

Internacional de Madrid and SS Reyes drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs SS Reyes — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs SS Reyes