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SS Reyes vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
CANC
22:00
Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
5/2/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

SS Reyes38%
×Draw29%
Internacional de Madrid33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.15
Internacional de Madrid
1.04

SS Reyes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Internacional de Madrid
0.76

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Internacional de Madrid
1.42

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Internacional de Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
67%
SS Reyes or Internacional de Madrid
71%
Draw or Internacional de Madrid
62%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
16%
Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
68%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
32%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
11%
Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
65%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
28%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
54%
Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SS Reyes scores more
38%
level
29%
Internacional de Madrid scores more
33%

SS Reyes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SS Reyes face Internacional de Madrid (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with SS Reyes hosting Internacional de Madrid. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SS Reyes host Internacional de Madrid at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.