Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SpVgg Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
1/28/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth40%
×Draw24%
Holstein Kiel36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.57
Holstein Kiel
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.63
Holstein Kiel
1.59

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.42
Holstein Kiel
1.52

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw
64%
SpVgg Greuther Furth or Holstein Kiel
76%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
60%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
19%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
79%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
46%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
21%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
78%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
44%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
52%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.42 · 120 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.63 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Holstein Kiel attack 1.59 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
40%
level
24%
Holstein Kiel scores more
36%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel

SpVgg Greuther Furth beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Fürth.