Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 119+ matches
Holstein Kiel45%
SpVgg Greuther Furth30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Holstein Kiel creates 26% more chances
Season form · 119 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Holstein Kiel ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches
SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65
SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Holstein Kiel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
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Hertha BSC
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VfL Bochum
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Dynamo DresdenHolstein KielSpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
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Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Holstein Kiel host SpVgg Greuther Furth on Saturday, 5 August 2023 at 11:00. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
2. Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth
Holstein Kiel beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 5, 2023.
Goals: B. Hrgota (63'), J. Sterner (68'), S. Machino (71' pen).
SpVgg Greuther Furth controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 12.
The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.