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Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1/31/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 20Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Holstein Kiel45%
×Draw24%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.65
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.31

Holstein Kiel creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
1.63
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.25

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.37
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.68

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
70%
Holstein Kiel or SpVgg Greuther Fürth
76%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth
55%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
24%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
81%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
49%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
23%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals
73%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals
38%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
60%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.25 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
45%
level
24%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more
30%

Holstein Kiel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel 1–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.