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SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
1/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth Kronacher Str. 177

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth29%
×Draw24%
FC Ingolstadt 0446%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.25
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.63

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.83
FC Ingolstadt 04
2.00

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.25
FC Ingolstadt 04
0.67

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw
54%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or FC Ingolstadt 04
76%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
71%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+
12%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals
71%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals
36%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals
13%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
80%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
48%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)
39%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.83 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 2.00 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more
29%
level
24%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
46%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Ingolstadt 04

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth Kronacher Str. 177 in Fürth.