Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
1/29/20192. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth50%
×Draw23%
FC Ingolstadt 0427%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.84
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.29

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 43% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 36 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.63
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.17

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.42
FC Ingolstadt 04
2.06

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw
73%
SpVgg Greuther Furth or FC Ingolstadt 04
77%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
50%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
28%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
84%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
55%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
28%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
72%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
37%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
65%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.42 · 120 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.63 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.17 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
50%
level
23%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
27%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Ingolstadt 04

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on January 29, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Furth.