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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
8/10/20182. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 2Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0438%
×Draw26%
SpVgg Greuther Furth36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.37
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.06
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.25

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.68

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
64%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or SpVgg Greuther Furth
74%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth
62%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
17%
SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
75%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
40%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
16%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
74%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
39%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
51%
SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.06 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
38%
level
26%
SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
36%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth

FC Ingolstadt 04 and SpVgg Greuther Furth drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 10, 2018.

The match was played at Audi Sportpark in Ingolstadt.