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Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2025

Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
G. Viera 48'
2/15/2026Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio Martin Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense38%
×Draw28%
Libertad Asuncion34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Trinidense
1.23
Libertad Asuncion
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense
1.45
Libertad Asuncion
1.45

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense
0.82
Libertad Asuncion
1.00

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw
66%
Sportivo Trinidense or Libertad Asuncion
72%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
62%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
17%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
71%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
35%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
13%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
68%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
32%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
53%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.45 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.45 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more
38%
level
28%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
34%

Sportivo Trinidense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
R. M. Morinigo AcostaLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · G
8.3

Match Events

9'
Sergio Mendoza
28'
Gustavo VieraGoal cancelled
40'
Ariel Gauto
45+4'
Thiago Fernandez
46'
D. Melgarejo← S. Mendoza
46'
R. Baez Mendoza← N. Gauto
46'
I. Ramirez← T. Fernandez
48'
G. Viera
52'
A. Fretes← G. Aguilar
59'
A. Morinigo← A. B. Cano Esteche
59'
R. Baez← G. Viera
61'
Tomas Rayer
65'
Federico Carrizo
66'
Matías Dufour
67'
O. R. Vera← F. Carrizo
67'
M. Fernandez← I. Franco
72'
Clementino González
78'
J. Recalde← L. Sanabria
83'
Alexis Fretes
84'
O. Gimenez← C. Gonzalez
88'
Oscar Gimenez
90+5'
Alan Tobías Morinigo
90+3'
Jorge Recalde

Possession

36%Sportivo

Shots

15Sportivo

Pass accuracy

46%Sportivo

Statistics

SportivoLibertad
Overview
36%Possession64%
15Total Shots20
2.76Expected Goals (xG)1.88
2Corners6
8Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots20
7On Target2
6Off Target15
2Blocked3
8Inside Box10
7Outside Box10
Passing
36%Possession64%
262Total Passes465
175Accurate Passes368
67%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls12
7Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Division Profesional - Apertura: Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Libertad Asuncion

Sportivo Trinidense beat Libertad Asuncion 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 15, 2026.

Goals: G. Viera (48').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Martin Torres in Asuncion.