Sportivo Trinidense 0–2 Libertad Asuncion

Sportivo Trinidense

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Libertad Asuncion

I. Franco 67'

H. Fernandez 7'

7/26/2025

League #252 · Clausura - 4Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense22%

×Draw29%

Libertad Asuncion50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo TrinidenseExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.32

Sportivo Trinidense

0.77

Libertad Asuncion

1.32

Libertad Asuncion creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

0.33

creates per match

1.64

1.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense

0.33

Libertad Asuncion

1.64

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense

1.00

Libertad Asuncion

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw

50%

Sportivo Trinidense or Libertad Asuncion

71%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

78%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

7%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

54%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

18%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

4%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

73%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

38%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

31%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 0.33 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.77

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.64 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

22%

level

29%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

50%

Libertad Asuncion at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Alvarez

Sportivo Trinidense · F

7.7

Match Events

7'

H. Fernandez↳ N. Gimenez

26'

D. Melgarejo← S. Mendoza

54'

J. Salcedo← L. De la Cruz

54'

O. Gimenez← N. Camacho

61'

Oscar Gimenez

61'

Miguel Jacquet

62'

H. Martinez← H. Fernandez

62'

A. Cardozo Lucena← I. Ramirez

62'

M. Fernandez← J. Recalde

67'

I. Franco↳ H. Martinez

69'

P. Zarza← R. Baez Mendoza

69'

T. Rayer← J. Roman

80'

J. Bogarin← I. Franco

80'

C. R. Santa← L. Sanabria

88'

Joaquin BogarinGoal cancelled

90+1'

Ángel Cardozo Lucena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoLibertad

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots15

0.77Expected Goals (xG)1.79

7Corners5

6Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots15

5On Target8

7Off Target3

3Blocked4

13Inside Box6

2Outside Box9

Passing

57%Possession43%

415Total Passes322

311Accurate Passes226

75%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3