Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense — League #252 2026

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
10/5/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 15Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Libertad Asuncion19%
×Draw33%
Sportivo Trinidense48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
0.57
Sportivo Trinidense
1.09

Sportivo Trinidense creates 91% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.82
Sportivo Trinidense
1.00

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.18
Sportivo Trinidense
0.33

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–121%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
52%
Libertad Asuncion or Sportivo Trinidense
67%
Draw or Sportivo Trinidense
81%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
5%
Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
43%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
11%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
2%
Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
66%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
30%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
28%
Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.82 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
19%
level
33%
Sportivo Trinidense scores more
48%

Sportivo Trinidense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. EspinozaLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · D
7.7

Match Events

8'
Hugo Fernández
13'
Pedro Zarza
46'
O. Acuna← P. Villalba
57'
J. Bogarin← I. Franco
57'
R. Baez Mendoza← P. Zarza
57'
F. Romero← N. Camacho
63'
A. Cardozo Lucena← T. Fernandez
63'
M. Fernandez← H. Fernandez
67'
N. Gauto← J. Salcedo
71'
A. Campuzano← L. Sanabria
77'
D. Villalba← M. Centurion
78'
A. Alvarez← G. Viera
89'
Lorenzo Melgarejo
89'
David Villalba

Possession

57%Libertad

Shots

10Libertad

Pass accuracy

51%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadSportivo
Overview
57%Possession43%
10Total Shots7
0.39Expected Goals (xG)0.78
3Corners4
11Fouls18
Shots
10Total Shots7
0On Target3
6Off Target4
4Blocked0
5Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
520Total Passes378
432Accurate Passes303
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls18
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense

Libertad Asuncion and Sportivo Trinidense drew 0-0 in League #252 on October 5, 2025.

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.