Sportivo Luqueno 0–0 Sportivo Ameliano

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Ameliano

6/2/2025

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 22Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno35%

×Draw28%

Sportivo Ameliano37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Ameliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.17

Sportivo Luqueno

1.12

Sportivo Ameliano

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 55 away

1.13

creates per match

1.04

1.30

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.13

Sportivo Ameliano

1.04

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.30

Sportivo Ameliano

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

63%

Sportivo Luqueno or Sportivo Ameliano

72%

Draw or Sportivo Ameliano

65%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

14%

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

67%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

31%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

10%

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

69%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

33%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

48%

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.04 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

35%

level

28%

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

37%

Sportivo Ameliano at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff