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Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
3/5/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Feliciano Caceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno29%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Ameliano43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.00
Sportivo Ameliano
1.30

Sportivo Ameliano creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.00
Sportivo Ameliano
1.17

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.44
Sportivo Ameliano
1.00

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
57%
Sportivo Luqueno or Sportivo Ameliano
72%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
71%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
11%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
63%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
26%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
8%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
73%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
37%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
40%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.17 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
29%
level
28%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
43%

Sportivo Ameliano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano

Sportivo Luqueno beat Sportivo Ameliano 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Caceres in Luque.