Sportivo Ameliano 2–2 Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Ameliano

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sportivo Luqueno

3/29/2025

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano38%

×Draw27%

Sportivo Luqueno35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo AmelianoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Luqueno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.21

Sportivo Ameliano

1.28

Sportivo Luqueno

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 86 away

1.13

creates per match

1.00

1.42

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.13

Sportivo Luqueno

1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.42

Sportivo Luqueno

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw

65%

Sportivo Ameliano or Sportivo Luqueno

73%

Draw or Sportivo Luqueno

62%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

17%

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

72%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

37%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

14%

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

70%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

34%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

52%

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.13 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

38%

level

27%

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

35%

Sportivo Ameliano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff