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Sportivo Italiano vs Canuelas — Primera C 2026

Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
FT
1 – 1
Canuelas
Canuelas
10/5/2019Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 11Estadio República de Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sportivo Italiano43%
×Draw30%
Canuelas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Italiano
1.20
Canuelas
0.89

Sportivo Italiano creates 35% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sportivo Italiano
1.29
Canuelas
0.95

allows per match

Sportivo Italiano
0.83
Canuelas
1.11

finishing

Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par
Canuelas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Italiano ↓

Canuelas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Italiano or draw
73%
Sportivo Italiano or Canuelas
70%
Draw or Canuelas
57%

Winning margin

Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
19%
Canuelas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
34%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
12%
Canuelas 1+ goals
59%
Canuelas 2+ goals
22%
Canuelas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
61%
Canuelas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Italiano at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.83 · 90 matches

Canuelas away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Italiano attack 1.29 + Canuelas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Canuelas attack 0.95 + Sportivo Italiano defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportivo Italiano scores more
43%
level
30%
Canuelas scores more
27%

Sportivo Italiano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Sportivo Italiano 1–1 Canuelas

Sportivo Italiano and Canuelas drew 1-1 in Primera C on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio República de Italia in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.