Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Canuelas vs Sportivo Italiano — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Canuelas
Canuelas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
8/3/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 8Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Canuelas37%
×Draw30%
Sportivo Italiano32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canuelas
1.08
Sportivo Italiano
0.98

Canuelas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 54 away

creates per match

Canuelas
1.07
Sportivo Italiano
0.89

allows per match

Canuelas
1.07
Sportivo Italiano
1.09

finishing

Canuelas+0.00on par
Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canuelas ↓

Sportivo Italiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Canuelas or draw
68%
Canuelas or Sportivo Italiano
70%
Draw or Sportivo Italiano
63%

Winning margin

Canuelas wins by 2+
15%
Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Canuelas 1+ goals
66%
Canuelas 2+ goals
29%
Canuelas 3+ goals
10%
Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
62%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
26%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Canuelas (draw refunded)
54%
Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canuelas at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Sportivo Italiano away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canuelas attack 1.07 + Sportivo Italiano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sportivo Italiano attack 0.89 + Canuelas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Canuelas scores more
37%
level
30%
Sportivo Italiano scores more
32%

Canuelas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canuelas vs Sportivo Italiano

Sportivo Italiano beat Canuelas 3-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín in Cañuelas, Provincia de Buenos Aires.