Canuelas 2–1 Sportivo Italiano: Result & Stats

Canuelas

FT

2 – 1

Sportivo Italiano

1/27/2019

Primera C · Round 20Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín (Cañuelas, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Canuelas38%

×Draw29%

Sportivo Italiano32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanuelasExpected goals in this matchSportivo Italiano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.02

Canuelas

1.14

Sportivo Italiano

1.02

Canuelas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 95 away

1.24

creates per match

0.88

1.17

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Canuelas

1.24

Sportivo Italiano

0.88

allows per match

Canuelas

1.17

Sportivo Italiano

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canuelas+0.00on par

Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canuelas ↓

Sportivo Italiano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Canuelas or draw

68%

Canuelas or Sportivo Italiano

71%

Draw or Sportivo Italiano

62%

Winning margin

Canuelas wins by 2+

16%

Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Canuelas 1+ goals

68%

Canuelas 2+ goals

32%

Canuelas 3+ goals

11%

Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals

64%

Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals

27%

Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Canuelas (draw refunded)

54%

Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canuelas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Sportivo Italiano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.04 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canuelas attack 1.24 + Sportivo Italiano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sportivo Italiano attack 0.88 + Canuelas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Canuelas scores more

38%

level

29%

Sportivo Italiano scores more

32%

Canuelas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff