Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Sportivo Ameliano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

E. Vera 63' (pen)

1/31/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 3Estadio Jose Tomas Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano47%

×Draw25%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo AmelianoExpected goals in this matchClub Sp. San Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.15

Sportivo Ameliano

1.59

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.15

Sportivo Ameliano creates 38% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 31 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.42

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.13

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

0.87

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.42

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw

72%

Sportivo Ameliano or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

75%

Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

53%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

24%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

80%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

47%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

21%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

68%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

32%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

63%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.06 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.13 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 0.87 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

47%

level

25%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

28%

Sportivo Ameliano at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

F. Franco

Sportivo Ameliano · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

14'

30'

30'

31'

B. Pinatares← T. Jara

46'

J. Sanguina← J. Benitez

60'

Iván Torres

62'

L. Ayala← F. Vera

62'

P. Aveiro← I. Torres

62'

H. Gonzalez← I. Figueroa

63'

E. VeraPenalty

66'

Abel Paredes

68'

W. Rodriguez← E. Vera

68'

M. Benitez← A. Servian

73'

S. Aranda← A. Paredes

79'

A. Oviedo← A. Alvarez

79'

M. Martinez← A. Quinonez

84'

Luis Cáceres

90'

Sebastian Fabian Aranda Marin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoClub

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots9

2.00Expected Goals (xG)0.51

6Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

2On Target3

7Off Target4

4Blocked2

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

413Total Passes278

348Accurate Passes210

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1