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Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano — Division Intermedia 2026

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
FT
2 – 0
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
L. Rivarola 90+4'
S. Salcedo 17'
6/19/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo42%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Ameliano30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.32
Sportivo Ameliano
1.07

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.64
Sportivo Ameliano
1.24

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0.91
Sportivo Ameliano
1.00

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw
70%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Sportivo Ameliano
73%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
58%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals
73%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals
38%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals
15%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
66%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
29%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
58%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.24 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more
42%
level
27%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
30%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
S. Salcedo
90+4'
L. Rivarola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano

Club Sp. San Lorenzo beat Sportivo Ameliano 2-0 in Division Intermedia on June 19, 2021.

Goals: S. Salcedo (17'), L. Rivarola (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Gunther Vogel in San Lorenzo.