Sportivo Ameliano vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo — Division Intermedia 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Sportivo Ameliano42%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sportivo Ameliano creates 18% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 92 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sportivo Ameliano ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.76 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.40
Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Sportivo Ameliano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Deportivo Santani
12 de Junio VH
Atlético Tembetary
Benjamín Aceval
Fernando De La Mora
Sportivo Carapeguá
Tacuary
Paraguari AC
SOL DE America
Encarnación
General Caballero
Guairena FC
Independiente F.b.c.
Deportivo Capiata
Resistencia
3 de NoviembreIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sportivo Ameliano host Club Sp. San Lorenzo on Saturday, 25 September 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Division Intermedia 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Sportivo Ameliano vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Sportivo Ameliano beat Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3-0 in Division Intermedia on September 25, 2021.
Goals: A. Estigarribia (61'), F. Alfonso (80'), F. Benitez (85').
The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara in Luque.