Sporting Gijon 0–1 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

Olasagasti 63'

11/12/2021

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sporting Gijon49%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.26

Sporting Gijon

1.74

Real Sociedad II

1.26

Sporting Gijon creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.42

creates per match

1.51

1.01

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.42

Real Sociedad II

1.51

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.01

Real Sociedad II

2.07

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.15scores more

Real Sociedad II-0.07on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

72%

Sporting Gijon or Real Sociedad II

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

51%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

26%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

82%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

52%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

25%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

72%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

36%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

64%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 7 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.07 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.42 + Real Sociedad II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.74

Real Sociedad II attack 1.51 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

49%

level

24%

Real Sociedad II scores more

28%

Sporting Gijon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Blasco

Real Sociedad II · D

7.9

Match Events

35'

Jean-Sylvain Babin

63'

V. Kravets← Aitor García

63'

Olasagasti↳ J. Blasco

67'

Aritz Aldasoro← Robert Navarro

77'

Álvaro Santamaría← Christian Rivera

77'

César García← Berto González

80'

Luca Sangalli

81'

Jon Magunacelaya← Roberto López

81'

Daniel Garrido← Javi Martón

85'

Álex Oyón← Pablo García

90+1'

Francisco Villalba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingReal

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots11

1Corners6

10Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target5

2Off Target3

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

540Total Passes581

459Accurate Passes489

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3