Real Sociedad II 2–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Gijon

Jon Karrikaburu 90+6' (pen), 44'

U. Đurđević 61'

3/7/2022

Segunda División · Round 30Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Real Sociedad II40%

×Draw26%

Sporting Gijon34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.29

Real Sociedad II

1.43

Sporting Gijon

1.29

Real Sociedad II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.34

creates per match

1.14

1.44

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.34

Sporting Gijon

1.14

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.44

Sporting Gijon

1.52

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Real Sociedad II-0.01on par

Sporting Gijon-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

66%

Real Sociedad II or Sporting Gijon

74%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

60%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

19%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

76%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

42%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

17%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

37%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

54%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.34 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sporting Gijon attack 1.14 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

40%

level

26%

Sporting Gijon scores more

34%

Real Sociedad II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Jon Karrikaburu

Real Sociedad II · F

8.3

Match Events

25'

Xeber Alkain

44'

Jon Karrikaburu↳ Olasagasti

59'

Julen Lobete← Xeber Alkain

59'

J. Blasco← Robert Navarro

61'

U. Đurđević↳ José Luis Rodríguez

66'

Álex Sola

68'

Enrique Clemente

69'

José Gragera← Nacho Méndez

69'

Gaspar Campos← Aitor García

74'

Bogdan Milovanov

74'

P. Pokorný← Roberto López

77'

Uroš Đurđević

79'

Jordi Calavera← B. Milovanov

80'

E. Ramírez← U. Đurđević

86'

Germán Valera← Álex Sola

86'

Ander Martín← J. Gómez

87'

Pablo Pérez← Christian Rivera

90+5'

Diego Mariño

90+4'

Eric Ramírez

90+6'

Jon KarrikaburuPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealSporting

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots12

6Corners3

7Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target2

3Off Target10

7Blocked0

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

537Total Passes402

452Accurate Passes319

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2