Sporting Gijon 0–2 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

0 – 2

Real Sociedad II

7/28/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting Gijon61%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.67

Sporting Gijon

1.67

Real Sociedad II

0.67

Sporting Gijon creates 149% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.33

Real Sociedad II

0.67

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

0.67

Real Sociedad II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

85%

Sporting Gijon or Real Sociedad II

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

39%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

34%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

81%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

50%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

23%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

49%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

15%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

81%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.33 + Real Sociedad II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Sociedad II attack 0.67 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

61%

level

24%

Real Sociedad II scores more

15%

Sporting Gijon at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff