Sporting Gijon 3–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mirandes

G. Rosas 73'

J. Dubasin 53' (pen)

J. Otero 45' (pen)

1/24/2026

Segunda División · Round 23El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Sporting Gijon47%

×Draw27%

Mirandes26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.97

Sporting Gijon

1.40

Mirandes

0.97

Sporting Gijon creates 44% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 149 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.31

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

0.93

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

74%

Sporting Gijon or Mirandes

73%

Draw or Mirandes

53%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

23%

Mirandes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

75%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

41%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

17%

Mirandes 1+ goals

62%

Mirandes 2+ goals

25%

Mirandes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

64%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.93 · 169 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.31 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

47%

level

27%

Mirandes scores more

26%

Sporting Gijon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

G. Rosas

Sporting Gijon · D

8.7

Match Events

21'

25'

44'

44'

45+3'

45'

J. OteroPenalty

51'

Juan OteroPenalty confirmed

52'

Jorge Cabello

53'

J. DubasinPenalty

55'

J. Bernal← Nacho Martin

65'

T. Helguera← S. Clua

67'

Juan Gutiérrez

72'

A. Ferrari← J. Dubasin

73'

G. Rosas↳ A. Corredera

74'

H. Novoa Ramos← T. Tamarit

74'

S. El Jebari← A. Mari

76'

D. Queipo← C. Gelabert Pina

77'

K. Vazquez← G. Rosas

77'

J. Smith← A. Corredera

78'

A. Houary← R. Bauza

79'

F. Medrano← P. Perez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingMirandes

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots11

2.08Expected Goals (xG)1.42

6Corners6

7Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target2

3Off Target6

7Blocked3

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

507Total Passes338

452Accurate Passes277

89%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0