Mirandes 1–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Gijon

M. Lachuer 27' (pen)

Róber Pier 80'

12/18/2024

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Mirandes43%

×Draw28%

Sporting Gijon29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.01

Mirandes

1.28

Sporting Gijon

1.01

Mirandes creates 27% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 169 away

1.42

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Sporting Gijon

0.90

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

71%

Mirandes or Sporting Gijon

72%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

57%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

19%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

72%

Mirandes 2+ goals

37%

Mirandes 3+ goals

14%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

64%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

27%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

59%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mirandes scores more

43%

level

28%

Sporting Gijon scores more

29%

Mirandes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Julio Alonso

Mirandes · D

7.7

Match Events

26'

Julio AlonsoPenalty confirmed

27'

Urko Izeta← J. Panichelli

27'

M. LachuerPenalty

28'

N. Maraš← Eric Curbelo

62'

Nikola Maraš

63'

Gaspar Campos← César Gelabert

64'

Nacho Martín← N. Maraš

70'

S. Homenchenko← Alberto Reina

72'

Róber Pier

75'

Iker Martínez← Kevin Vázquez

75'

Víctor Campuzano← J. Caicedo

76'

Tachi← M. Lachuer

80'

Róber Pier↳ Nacho Martín

82'

Jonathan DubasinGoal confirmed

89'

Alberto Dadie← Joel Roca

90+6'

Jonathan Dubasin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesSporting

Overview

32%Possession68%

6Total Shots13

1Corners4

6Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target5

3Off Target4

0Blocked4

6Inside Box9

0Outside Box4

Passing

32%Possession68%

278Total Passes581

162Accurate Passes464

58%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2