Mirandes 2–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Gijon

G. Petit 88'

C. Fernandez 52'

J. Dubasin 30' (pen)

11/7/2025

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Mendizorrotza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Mirandes43%

×Draw28%

Sporting Gijon29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.01

Mirandes

1.28

Sporting Gijon

1.01

Mirandes creates 27% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 169 away

1.42

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Sporting Gijon

0.90

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

71%

Mirandes or Sporting Gijon

72%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

57%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

19%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

72%

Mirandes 2+ goals

37%

Mirandes 3+ goals

14%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

64%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

27%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

59%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mirandes scores more

43%

level

28%

Sporting Gijon scores more

29%

Mirandes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Yanez

Sporting Gijon · G

7.9

Match Events

19'

Juan Gutiérrez

28'

Rafael Bauza

30'

J. DubasinPenalty

41'

Ignacio Martín

45+1'

Thiago Helguera

46'

P. Garcia← O. Cortes

52'

C. Fernandez↳ A. Mari

63'

A. Cardero← A. Martin Luis

64'

Pablo Vázquez

74'

I. Barea Fernandez← T. Helguera

75'

G. Petit← A. Mari

79'

A. Coundoul← C. Gelabert Pina

84'

M. Rodriguez← J. Smith

88'

G. Petit↳ M. Pascual

89'

J. Caicedo← P. Vazquez

90+2'

Álex Cardero

90+1'

I. Cordoba← C. Fernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesSporting

Overview

45%Possession55%

20Total Shots7

4Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots7

9On Target2

7Off Target4

4Blocked1

15Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

377Total Passes467

306Accurate Passes372

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Sporting Gijon

Mirandes beat Sporting Gijon 2-1 in Segunda División on November 7, 2025.

Goals: J. Dubasin (30' pen), C. Fernandez (52'), G. Petit (88').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Mendizorrotza in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Mirandes vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Sporting Gijon