Sporting Gijon 2–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mirandes

Pedro Díaz 71'

J. Babin 34'

Simón Moreno 82'

8/28/2021

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sporting Gijon46%

×Draw26%

Mirandes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Mirandes

1.06

Sporting Gijon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.44

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Mirandes

1.44

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

72%

Sporting Gijon or Mirandes

74%

Draw or Mirandes

54%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

22%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

18%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

29%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

62%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

46%

level

26%

Mirandes scores more

28%

Sporting Gijon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Pedro Díaz

Sporting Gijon · M

8.5

Match Events

29'

Iñigo Vicente

33'

Oriol Rey

34'

J. Babin↳ Marc Valiente

46'

Brugui← César Gelabert

46'

Rementeria← Álex López

47'

José Gragera

59'

H. Hassan← Iñigo Vicente

65'

Marc Valiente

71'

Pedro Díaz↳ José Gragera

75'

Gaspar Campos← Aitor García

75'

A. Arroyo← Oriol Rey

76'

Nacho Méndez← Fran Villalba

79'

Guille Rosas

82'

Simón Moreno↳ Víctor Meseguer

90+1'

Víctor Campuzano← José Rodríguez

90+3'

Pablo Pérez← U. Đurđević

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingMirandes

Overview

47%Possession53%

20Total Shots5

7Corners2

18Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots5

7On Target3

10Off Target1

3Blocked1

11Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

442Total Passes509

376Accurate Passes429

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0