Sporting Gijon 1–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

U. Đurđević 54' (pen)

Pacheco 81'

M. Ezzarfani 74'

4/4/2021

Segunda División · Round 33Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sporting Gijon46%

×Draw26%

Mirandes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Mirandes

1.06

Sporting Gijon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.44

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Mirandes

1.44

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

72%

Sporting Gijon or Mirandes

74%

Draw or Mirandes

54%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

22%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

18%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

29%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

62%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

46%

level

26%

Mirandes scores more

28%

Sporting Gijon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Pacheco

Mirandes · M

7.9

Match Events

52'

Jean-Sylvain BabinGoal cancelled

53'

Víctor Meseguer

54'

U. ĐurđevićPenalty

66'

M. Ezzarfani← Antonio Caballero

67'

Gaspar Campos← Aitor García

73'

Jean-Sylvain Babin

74'

M. Ezzarfani↳ Cristo González

78'

Pedro Díaz← Cristian Salvador

81'

Pacheco

82'

Carlos Carmona← Manu García

82'

N. Čumić← Nacho Méndez

82'

Saúl García← Pablo García

86'

Bogdan Milovanov

90'

Sergio Moreno

90+1'

Sergio Moreno← Cristo González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingMirandes

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots10

9Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots10

2On Target7

7Off Target2

4Blocked1

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

444Total Passes409

355Accurate Passes317

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sporting Gijon vs Mirandes

Mirandes beat Sporting Gijon 2-1 in Segunda División on April 4, 2021.

Goals: U. Đurđević (54' pen), M. Ezzarfani (74'), Pacheco (81').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.

Sporting Gijon vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sporting Gijon vs Mirandes