Sporting Gijon 2–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mirandes

Pedro Díaz 79'

Carlos Carmona 7'

Joaquín Muñoz 74'

Maranhão 13' (pen)

2/9/2020

Segunda División · Round 27Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sporting Gijon46%

×Draw26%

Mirandes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Mirandes

1.06

Sporting Gijon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.44

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Mirandes

1.44

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

72%

Sporting Gijon or Mirandes

74%

Draw or Mirandes

54%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

22%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

18%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

29%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

62%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

46%

level

26%

Mirandes scores more

28%

Sporting Gijon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Carlos Carmona

Sporting Gijon · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

Carlos Carmona

9'

Mickael Malsa

13'

MaranhãoPenalty

29'

Pedro Díaz

42'

Jon Guridi

63'

Joaquín Muñoz← Iñigo Vicente

65'

U. Đurđević← Aitor García

74'

Joaquín Muñoz↳ A. González

76'

Murilo← Carlos Carmona

76'

Antonio Sánchez← Álvaro Rey

79'

Pedro Díaz

82'

Traver← Pablo Pérez

85'

Mario Barco← Maranhão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingMirandes

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots4

7Corners2

10Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots4

8On Target3

8Off Target0

2Blocked1

9Inside Box4

9Outside Box0

Passing

57%Possession43%

432Total Passes339

314Accurate Passes228

73%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–2 Mirandes

Sporting Gijon and Mirandes drew 2-2 in Segunda División on February 9, 2020.

Goals: Carlos Carmona (7'), Maranhão (13' pen), Joaquín Muñoz (74'), Pedro Díaz (79').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.

Sporting Gijon vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–2 Mirandes