Sporting Gijon 1–3 Malaga: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

Víctor Campuzano 82'

Dioni 90+4', 86'

R. Baturina 46'

12/21/2024

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sporting Gijon32%

×Draw24%

Malaga44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.60

Sporting Gijon

1.34

Malaga

1.60

Malaga creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

2.14

1.06

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Malaga

1.25

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

56%

Sporting Gijon or Malaga

76%

Draw or Malaga

68%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

14%

Malaga wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

74%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

39%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

15%

Malaga 1+ goals

80%

Malaga 2+ goals

47%

Malaga 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

42%

Malaga (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Malaga attack 2.14 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

32%

level

24%

Malaga scores more

44%

Malaga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Alfonso Herrero

Malaga · G

8.7

Match Events

39'

Dani Queipo

46'

César Gelabert← Dani Queipo

46'

R. Baturina↳ Antonio Cordero

50'

Julen Lobete

54'

Lander Olaetxea

60'

Nacho Martín← Lander Olaetxea

60'

Kevin Medina← David Larrubia

60'

Dioni← R. Baturina

63'

Carlos Puga

69'

J. Caicedo← Jesús Bernal

69'

Cote← Pablo García

77'

A. Moloney← Antonio Cordero

77'

Izan Merino← Julen Lobete

80'

César GelabertPenalty confirmed

82'

Víctor CampuzanoMissed penalty

82'

Víctor Campuzano

85'

César Gelabert

86'

Dioni↳ Dani Sánchez

88'

Álex Oyón← Víctor Campuzano

90+6'

Sangalli← Manu Molina

90+4'

Dioni↳ Izan Merino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingMalaga

Overview

55%Possession45%

23Total Shots7

10Corners2

18Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots7

8On Target4

8Off Target1

7Blocked2

16Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

428Total Passes370

330Accurate Passes276

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

18Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 1–3 Malaga

Malaga beat Sporting Gijon 3-1 in Segunda División on December 21, 2024.

Goals: R. Baturina (46'), Víctor Campuzano (82'), Dioni (86', 90+4').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (55%) and registered 23 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.

Sporting Gijon vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 1–3 Malaga