Sporting Gijon 0–0 Malaga: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

1/29/2023

Segunda División · Round 25Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Sporting Gijon44%

×Draw29%

Malaga28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.94

Sporting Gijon

1.26

Malaga

0.94

Sporting Gijon creates 34% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 150 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

0.94

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.32

Malaga

0.95

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

0.94

Malaga

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

72%

Sporting Gijon or Malaga

71%

Draw or Malaga

56%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

20%

Malaga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

36%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

13%

Malaga 1+ goals

61%

Malaga 2+ goals

24%

Malaga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

61%

Malaga (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 170 matches

Malaga away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.20 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.32 + Malaga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Malaga attack 0.95 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

44%

level

29%

Malaga scores more

28%

Sporting Gijon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Jordi Pola

Sporting Gijon · D

7.5

Match Events

17'

Pablo Insua

42'

Alfred N'Diaye

59'

Rubén Castro← Fran Sol

60'

Aleix Febas← Álex Gallar

63'

J. Otero← Aitor García

64'

Giovanni Zarfino

64'

U. Đurđević← Víctor Campuzano

75'

Cristian Gutiérrez← Luis Muñoz

76'

José Gragera← G. Zarfino

76'

Jony← Dani Queipo

83'

Esteban Burgos

84'

Pol Valentín← Guille Rosas

90'

Ramón Enríquez← Jozabed

90'

A. Appiah← L. Junior

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingMalaga

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots11

2Corners5

9Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots11

2On Target1

6Off Target5

1Blocked5

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

493Total Passes406

402Accurate Passes296

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3