Malaga 2–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijon

Chupe 83', 67'

J. Otero 59'

5/17/2025

Segunda División · Round 40Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Malaga41%

×Draw30%

Sporting Gijon29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.90

Malaga

1.15

Sporting Gijon

0.90

Malaga creates 28% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 170 away

1.17

creates per match

0.89

0.91

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Sporting Gijon

0.89

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

71%

Malaga or Sporting Gijon

70%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

59%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

18%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

68%

Malaga 2+ goals

32%

Malaga 3+ goals

11%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

59%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

23%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

59%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga scores more

41%

level

30%

Sporting Gijon scores more

29%

Malaga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Chupe

Malaga · F

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Carlos Puga

-5'

José Ángel

59'

J. Otero↳ Guille Rosas

60'

Manu Molina← Julen Lobete

61'

Dioni← Izan Merino

63'

Dioni

67'

Diego Sánchez← César Gelabert

67'

Chupe↳ David Larrubia

74'

Dani Queipo← Nico Serrano

77'

Pablo García

77'

Gabilondo← Diego Murillo

83'

Chupe↳ Víctor García

84'

Chupete

88'

Juanpe← Chupe

88'

Rafa Rodríguez← David Larrubia

88'

Víctor Campuzano← Lander Olaetxea

88'

Nacho Martín← Pablo García

89'

Victor Garcia Marin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaSporting

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots10

9Corners3

6Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target4

8Off Target4

3Blocked2

13Inside Box2

4Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

444Total Passes385

347Accurate Passes271

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Segunda División: Malaga 2–1 Sporting Gijon

Malaga beat Sporting Gijon 2-1 in Segunda División on May 17, 2025.

Goals: J. Otero (59'), Chupe (67', 83').

Malaga controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.

Malaga vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Malaga 2–1 Sporting Gijon