Sporting Gijon 1–0 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Granada CF

Diego Sánchez 22'

4/2/2023

Segunda División · Round 34Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sporting Gijon51%

×Draw26%

Granada CF23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.92

Sporting Gijon

1.52

Granada CF

0.92

Sporting Gijon creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.42

creates per match

0.83

1.01

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.42

Granada CF

0.83

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.01

Granada CF

1.62

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.15scores more

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

77%

Sporting Gijon or Granada CF

74%

Draw or Granada CF

49%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

26%

Granada CF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

78%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

45%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

20%

Granada CF 1+ goals

60%

Granada CF 2+ goals

23%

Granada CF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

69%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 7 matches

Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.42 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Granada CF attack 0.83 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

51%

level

26%

Granada CF scores more

23%

Sporting Gijon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Diego Sánchez

Sporting Gijon · D

7.6

Match Events

15'

Jonathan Varane

22'

Diego Sánchez↳ Pedro Díaz

46'

Pol Valentín← Guille Rosas

55'

Diego Sanchez

63'

Antonio Puertas← Pol Lozano

63'

Alberto Perea← S. Weissman

63'

Bryan Zaragoza← José Callejón

66'

Aitor García← I. Jeraldino

66'

Víctor Campuzano← J. Carrillo

69'

José Ángel

78'

Christian Rivera← J. Varane

80'

F. Diédhiou← Ricard Sánchez

86'

Cristo González← J. Otero

86'

J. Silva← Carlos Neva

89'

Víctor Campuzano

89'

Víctor Díaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingGranada

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots13

9Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target2

4Off Target8

1Blocked3

8Inside Box7

0Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

308Total Passes589

216Accurate Passes494

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2