Granada CF 1–2 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Gijon

J. M. Arnaiz 2'

B. Olivan 90'

D. Hormigo 45' (OG)

5/30/2026

Segunda División · Round 42Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF49%

×Draw28%

Sporting Gijon23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.83

Granada CF

1.35

Sporting Gijon

0.83

Granada CF creates 63% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 169 away

1.56

creates per match

0.90

0.76

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Granada CF

1.56

Sporting Gijon

0.90

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

77%

Granada CF or Sporting Gijon

72%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

51%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

23%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

74%

Granada CF 2+ goals

39%

Granada CF 3+ goals

15%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

56%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

20%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

68%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Granada CF scores more

49%

level

28%

Sporting Gijon scores more

23%

Granada CF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. M. Arnaiz

Granada CF · M

8.0

Match Events

2'

J. M. Arnaiz↳ J. Pascual

27'

Kevin Vázquez

34'

Rubén Alcaraz

45'

D. HormigoOwn goal

46'

G. Campos← C. Gelabert Pina

60'

B. Diocou← P. Saenz

61'

S. Ruiz← M. Trigueros

68'

Justin Smith

73'

P. Garcia← J. Otero

73'

B. Olivan← K. Vazquez

73'

E. Curbelo← L. Perrin

73'

J. Bernal← M. Rodriguez

81'

B. Diallo← M. Lama

81'

M. Gambin← I. Gonzalez

85'

S. Rodelas← J. M. Arnaiz

90'

B. Olivan↳ J. Dubasin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaSporting

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots8

1.14Expected Goals (xG)0.38

2Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked2

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

497Total Passes351

435Accurate Passes283

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0