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Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
Manu Lama 90'
M. Hongla 67'
L. Boyé 28' (pen)
J. Otero 83' (pen)
1/26/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 24Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF49%
×Draw28%
Sporting Gijon23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.35
Sporting Gijon
0.83

Granada CF creates 63% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 169 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.56
Sporting Gijon
0.90

allows per match

Granada CF
0.76
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
77%
Granada CF or Sporting Gijon
72%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
51%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
23%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
74%
Granada CF 2+ goals
39%
Granada CF 3+ goals
15%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
56%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
20%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
68%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Granada CF scores more
49%
level
28%
Sporting Gijon scores more
23%

Granada CF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Sergio RuizGranada CFGranada CF · M
8.9

Match Events

25'
Róber Pier
28'
L. BoyéPenalty
58'
Nacho Martín← Róber Pier
66'
Reinier← A. Rebbach
67'
Stoichkov← S. Weissman
67'
M. Hongla↳ Reinier
68'
Víctor Campuzano← Dani Queipo
80'
Jonathan DubasinPenalty confirmed
82'
Manu Lama← Pablo Insua
83'
J. OteroPenalty
86'
Gonzalo Villar← G. Tsitaishvili
87'
César Gelabert
90+4'
Manu Trigueros← L. Boyé
90+4'
Siren Diao← Reinier
90+2'
P. Mbemba← Lander Olaetxea
90+2'
J. Caicedo← J. Otero
90+2'
Carlos Dotor← Nacho Méndez
90'
Manu Lama↳ Sergio Ruiz

Possession

36%Granada

Shots

18Granada

Pass accuracy

47%Granada

Statistics

GranadaSporting
Overview
36%Possession64%
18Total Shots7
6Corners3
11Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots7
8On Target1
6Off Target5
4Blocked1
14Inside Box3
4Outside Box4
Passing
36%Possession64%
255Total Passes464
190Accurate Passes390
75%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Segunda División: Granada CF 3–1 Sporting Gijon

Granada CF beat Sporting Gijon 3-1 in Segunda División on January 26, 2025.

Goals: L. Boyé (28' pen), M. Hongla (67'), J. Otero (83' pen), Manu Lama (90').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (64%) and registered 7 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.