Sporting Gijon 5–2 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC Andorra

Nacho Méndez 83'

J. Otero 70', 28'

Dani Queipo 64'

Cote 11'

Iván Gil 65', 43'

5/11/2024

Segunda División · Round 39Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sporting Gijon46%

×Draw26%

FC Andorra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Sporting Gijon

1.44

FC Andorra

1.06

Sporting Gijon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

1.10

1.01

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.42

FC Andorra

1.10

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.01

FC Andorra

1.45

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.15scores more

FC Andorra+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

72%

Sporting Gijon or FC Andorra

74%

Draw or FC Andorra

54%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

22%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

18%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

65%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

29%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

62%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 7 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.42 + FC Andorra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Andorra attack 1.10 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

46%

level

26%

FC Andorra scores more

28%

Sporting Gijon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Otero

Sporting Gijon · M

8.9

Match Events

11'

Cote↳ Gaspar Campos

25'

José Ángel

28'

J. Otero↳ Fran Villalba

34'

Diego Pampín← Martí Vilà

39'

Iván Gil

43'

Iván Gil↳ Julen Lobete

46'

Pablo García← Cote

63'

Dani Queipo← Gaspar Campos

64'

Dani Queipo↳ Guille Rosas

65'

Iván Gil↳ Álvaro Martín

66'

Jon Karrikaburu← Rubén Bover

70'

J. Otero↳ Mario González

71'

Roque Mesa← Fran Villalba

80'

Álex Calvo← Álvaro Martín

80'

Adrià Vilanova← Álex Pastor

81'

Jorge Pombo← José Marsà

83'

Nacho Méndez

86'

Christian Rivera← Mario González

86'

G. Zarfino← Nacho Méndez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingFC

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots16

3Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots16

9On Target4

4Off Target5

1Blocked7

11Inside Box7

3Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

464Total Passes541

393Accurate Passes469

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Sporting Gijon vs FC Andorra

Sporting Gijon beat FC Andorra 5-2 in Segunda División on May 11, 2024.

Goals: Cote (11'), J. Otero (28', 70'), Iván Gil (43', 65'), Dani Queipo (64'), Nacho Méndez (83').

FC Andorra controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.

Sporting Gijon vs FC Andorra — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sporting Gijon vs FC Andorra