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FC Andorra vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
S. Bakış 81' (pen)
2/19/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

FC Andorra42%
×Draw30%
Sporting Gijon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.19
Sporting Gijon
0.92

FC Andorra creates 29% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 170 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.24
Sporting Gijon
0.89

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.94
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
72%
FC Andorra or Sporting Gijon
70%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
58%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
18%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
70%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
33%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
12%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
60%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
23%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
60%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.24 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + FC Andorra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Andorra scores more
42%
level
30%
Sporting Gijon scores more
28%

FC Andorra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
N. RattiFC AndorraFC Andorra · G
7.7

Match Events

27'
Christos AlbanisGoal cancelled
28'
Uroš Đurđević
46'
J. Varane← Cote
46'
J. Otero← Aitor García
59'
Giovanni Zarfino
65'
Giovanni ZarfinoGoal cancelled
71'
Dani Queipo← G. Zarfino
71'
U. Milovanović← U. Đurđević
75'
Carlos Izquierdoz
76'
Germán ValeraPenalty cancelled
79'
Sinan BakışPenalty confirmed
81'
S. BakışPenalty
82'
Jacobo González← C. Albanis
82'
Adrià Altimira← Germán Valera
82'
Víctor Campuzano← Cristo González
85'
Juan Otero
88'
H. Hevel← Rubén Bover
88'
Jandro Orellana← Iván Gil
90+1'
Álex Pastor← Alex Petxarroman

Possession

65%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

52%FC

Statistics

FCSporting
Overview
65%Possession35%
12Total Shots12
7Corners3
5Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots12
3On Target2
8Off Target7
1Blocked3
7Inside Box9
5Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
481Total Passes257
421Accurate Passes205
88%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls12
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides5

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Sporting Gijon

FC Andorra beat Sporting Gijon 1-0 in Segunda División on February 19, 2023.

Goals: S. Bakış (81' pen).

FC Andorra controlled possession (65%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.