FC Andorra 0–0 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

FC Andorra

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijon

9/23/2023

Segunda División · Round 7Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

FC Andorra42%

×Draw30%

Sporting Gijon28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AndorraExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.92

FC Andorra

1.19

Sporting Gijon

0.92

FC Andorra creates 29% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 170 away

1.24

creates per match

0.89

0.94

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FC Andorra

1.24

Sporting Gijon

0.89

allows per match

FC Andorra

0.94

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw

72%

FC Andorra or Sporting Gijon

70%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

58%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+

18%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals

70%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

33%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

12%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

60%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

23%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

60%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.24 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + FC Andorra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Andorra scores more

42%

level

30%

Sporting Gijon scores more

28%

FC Andorra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Rubén Yáñez

Sporting Gijon · G

8.2

Match Events

48'

Pablo Insua

58'

Roque Mesa← J. Varane

58'

H. Hassan← Fran Villalba

66'

Rubén Bover← Álvaro Martín

66'

Álex Calvo← Iker Benito

73'

Pablo Moreno← Manu Nieto

73'

Víctor Campuzano← Pablo García

73'

Dani Queipo← U. Đurđević

83'

Christian Rivera← Nacho Méndez

85'

Iván Gil← Sergi Samper

85'

Martí Vilà← Diego Pampín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSporting

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots6

4Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots6

5On Target2

5Off Target2

3Blocked2

6Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

570Total Passes303

509Accurate Passes238

89%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5